Please realize......

I really had to write this post considering the number of blogs and hype that I hear about the basketball card market. Most collectors know about the new contract starting with the 2009-10 year and how Pannini will be sole manufacturer. TONS of people have suspected/hoped that Topps and Upper Deck will overload the remaining basketball products to release relic/auto inventory they would not be able to use next year. STOP BELIEVING THE HYPE!!!

There are numerous reasons as to why this will not happen. Let's analyze each company.
Upper Deck has already announced it will be making at least 1 (my guess 3-4)NON-LICENSED basketball product hoping to duplicate the success Donruss had found making non-licensed baseball products. There would be no way on this earth that Richard McWilliams would EVER help Pannini with his excess inventory so what to do??? Well, either overload the remaining products from this year and make ZERO extra revenue, or, piece together whatever, stick some hits inside, and make more money. B-I-N-G-O!!! They do have the exclusive contracts with Kobe, LeBron, MJ and many others. My sources at the NBA told me they would solve that problem. If McWilliams will want trillions to give up those exclusives, so, make some collegiate products, make some head-shot products, and make some other crappy products and boom........$$$$$
With Topps, it would be more likely they would perhaps juice up some products since they don't have the big three anyways. But, that Wade exclusive is looking real good this year, the Shaq deal will always pay off, so again, why not make some Topps-style air-brushed sets as well?!!?!?
Another underlying issue that not many are thinking about is the future. Most of us remember that fateful day when Donruss lost their baseball license in 2005. Donruss, did juice up its remaining products very nicely. Dealers remember that for the next two years, people would first ask for 2-3 year old Donruss products rather than new Topps or new Upper Deck. This harkening back will happen again next year in basketball. NOT because Topps or Upper Deck will overload anything, but since Pannini has never made an autograph or jersey card it will take them time to acquire jerseys, shorts, autos etc etc......and to finally get them out to market. So those collectors hooked on hits, will have to go backwards to get some boxes that will yield to their jonesing. Plus, next year's rookie crop looks no where close to collectibility levels as this year. Also, since this is the one and only year WITHOUT any rookie exclusives, all products from both manufacturers are selling quite well even in a recessionary time. So, without juicing the products, when people look back, they will appear to BE juiced compared to what will come out early next year. Don't forget, the whole reason the NBA went with Pannini was for a "...larger global presence.." That doesn't sound like rare or collectible to me! Sounds more like the old Pro Set motto.
My recommendation to you all, DO NOT overload on end of year high end wax boxes and cases expecting piles of hits. DO put boxes away as next year they will be in very high demand. Crack some retail boxes and have some fun. Put your hobby boxes away. Sell them next year and take that trip to the Bahamas on me :)